Mortgage rates are on the move again, and not in the direction anyone was hoping for. If you’ve been watching the market waiting for the right moment, that window may be closing faster than expected. Here’s what’s actually happening, why it matters, and what you should do about it.
What’s Happening With Mortgage Rates Right Now?
After months of gradual improvement, UK mortgage rates have taken a sharp turn upward in March 2026. The average two year fixed rate has jumped from 4.84% to 5.28% since the start of the month. The average five-year fix has climbed from 4.96% to 5.32% in the same period.
On top of that, every sub-4% deal on the market has now been pulled. Gone. Major lenders including Barclays, HSBC, NatWest, Nationwide, and Santander have all increased rates, some by as much as 0.35 percentage points in a single week.
So what caused this sudden shift?
Why Are Mortgage Rates Going Up?
The short answer is: geopolitics.
Conflict in the Middle East has driven up oil and gas prices, which in turn has pushed inflation expectations higher. That spooked the markets, and swap rates reacted fast.
What Are Swap Rates and Why Do They Matter?
Swap rates are the rates at which banks lend money to each other. Fixed rate mortgages are priced largely based on swap rates, not the Bank of England base rate. When swap rates rise sharply, lenders reprice their deals quickly and often with very little notice.
That’s exactly what happened here. Swap rates spiked due to Middle East tensions, and lenders moved fast. Some products were pulled within hours.
What Did the Bank of England Do?
On 19 March 2026, the Bank of England voted unanimously to hold the base rate at 3.75%. Inflation currently sits at 3.2%, still above the 2% target. The Bank has made clear it’s watching energy prices closely and has not ruled out a rate rise if inflation spikes further. The next decision is scheduled for 30 April 2026.
For now, base rate cuts that were widely expected earlier this year look far less likely in the short term.
Should You Fix Your Mortgage Now?
This is the question on everyone’s lips right now. The honest answer is: it depends on your situation, but if you’re within six months of your deal ending, you probably shouldn’t wait.
You’re Coming Off a Fixed Deal Soon
Most lenders will let you lock in a new rate up to six months before your current deal ends. If your fix is expiring in the next six months, getting a new rate secured now protects you from further increases. If rates drop before you complete, you can often switch to the lower deal.
You’re on a Standard Variable Rate
If your fixed deal has already ended and you’ve rolled onto your lender’s SVR, you’re likely paying around 7% or more. The average SVR in March 2026 is 7.15%. Getting onto a fixed deal right now would almost certainly save you money every month, even at today’s elevated rates.
You’re Thinking of Buying
If you’re in the process of buying or about to start, locking in a rate now gives you certainty. House prices are expected to rise modestly this year. Waiting for rates to fall could mean competing in a more expensive market later with no guarantee rates will be meaningfully lower.
Fixed vs Tracker in 2026: Which Is Better?
With so much uncertainty, should you go fixed or look at a tracker?
A tracker mortgage follows the Bank of England base rate, so if cuts do come later in 2026, your payments would fall automatically. However, if the base rate rises or stays higher for longer, you’re exposed to that too.
A fixed rate gives you certainty. Your monthly payments don’t change for the length of your deal. In a volatile market like this one, that peace of mind has real value.
For most people right now, a two or five year fix makes more sense than a tracker. The short-term risk of rates rising further is real. The potential gain from a tracker isn’t guaranteed, and if the situation escalates further, tracker holders could end up worse off.
What Should You Actually Do Right Now?
Step 1: Check When Your Deal Ends
Log into your lender’s app or dig out your mortgage paperwork. Find the exact date your fixed rate expires. If it’s within six months, this becomes urgent.
Step 2: Speak to a Mortgage Broker
A whole of market broker can compare deals across all lenders and often access rates not available directly to the public. If you’re within six months of your deal ending, make this call this week, not next month.
Step 3: Don’t Wait for the Perfect Rate
Trying to time the mortgage market is a fool’s errand. Rates have surprised everyone in March 2026. Locking in something solid now and reviewing when your deal allows gives you protection without gambling on the market.
If your deal is ending soon, act now. If you’re already on an SVR, act faster. And if you’re buying, don’t assume cheaper deals are just around the corner.
Content on IceburgWealth.com is for informational purposes only and not intended as investment advice. While we strive to provide accurate and up-to-date information, Iceburg Wealth is not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for outcomes resulting from the use of this information. Readers should seek professional advice before making any financial decisions.