Mortgage rates are rising in the UK and the timing has caught a lot of borrowers off guard. After months of gradual improvement, the market shifted sharply in early March 2026 and the deals that were available just weeks ago have already gone. Here is what is happening and what you should do about it.
Why Are Mortgage Rates Going Up?
The short answer is the conflict in the Middle East.
Escalating tensions involving Iran have pushed oil and gas prices higher, raising concerns that inflation will stay elevated for longer than expected. That changes the outlook for Bank of England rate cuts, which in turn pushes up swap rates.
Swap rates are the rates lenders use to price fixed mortgages. When swap rates rise, fixed deals follow. Recent geopolitical tensions have caused swap rates to rise sharply and mortgage pricing has followed quickly behind.
As a result, the market has moved fast. The Bank of England held the base rate at 3.75% on 19 March 2026, but that has done little to calm fixed rate pricing, which is driven more by swap rates than the base rate itself.
How Much Have Rates Gone Up?
The numbers tell the story clearly. The average two year fixed rate has risen from 4.84% to 5.28% since the start of March, while five year fixed rates have moved from 4.96% to 5.32%.
Nationwide increased selected rates by up to 0.35% from 17 March, removing its sub-4% fixed rate mortgage offering entirely. NatWest and Santander both increased rates by as much as 0.35% from the same date, affecting purchase, remortgage, first time buyer and buy to let products.
NatWest, TSB and Virgin Money were among lenders hiking rates for a second time, while HSBC and Barclays both withdrew mortgage deals priced under 4%.
On top of that, around 50 to 60 mortgage products were withdrawn in a short period, with many returning later at higher rates. When big lenders pull deals, others tend to follow.
What Does This Mean for You?
It depends on where you are in your mortgage journey.
If your fixed rate is ending in the next six months, you need to start comparing deals now. Most lenders let you lock in an offer up to six months before your current deal ends. If rates rise further, you keep the lower rate you secured earlier. If rates fall, borrowers can often switch to a cheaper product before completion.
If you are on a standard variable rate, you are already exposed. SVRs are typically much higher than the best fixed deals and can change at any time. Working out your monthly payments at a rate 0.5% or 1% higher than today is a sensible exercise right now.
If you are a first time buyer, do not panic. Rates have been higher than this before. Average mortgage costs across all product types and loan to value tiers stood at 5.62% in March 2024 and 5.33% in March 2025. The current level, while uncomfortable, is not unprecedented.
Should You Fix Now or Wait?
There is no single right answer but here is a useful way to think about it.
Some economists now expect only one Bank of England rate cut in 2026, whereas earlier in the year markets had priced in two or more. A few prominent forecasters have even suggested that if energy prices stay elevated, base rate might need to rise again to contain inflation.
That is not guaranteed. If Middle East tensions ease and inflation cools, rates could fall later in the year. However, waiting and hoping is a strategy with real downside risk if you are approaching the end of a fixed deal.
For most people, certainty wins. A fixed rate gives you a predictable monthly payment regardless of what the market does next.
How to Get the Best Deal
Step 1: Check your current deal end date
Log into your mortgage account or find your original offer letter. Know exactly when your fix expires so you are not caught off guard rolling onto a standard variable rate.
Step 2: Use a whole of market broker
A broker who searches across the full market will often find deals you cannot access directly. They can also advise on whether to fix, for how long, and what arrangement fees are worth paying.
Step 3: Compare the total cost, not just the headline rate
A low rate with high fees can cost more than a slightly higher rate with no fees. Always compare what you will actually pay over the full deal period.
Step 4: Lock in a rate early
You do not need to wait until your current deal expires. Securing an offer now protects you if rates rise further. If rates fall before you complete, ask your broker whether you can switch to a better deal.
Step 5: Revisit if conditions change
Markets are volatile right now. Mortgage pricing hikes and product withdrawals are expected to correct if the Middle East conflict stabilises. Keep an eye on what is happening and be ready to act if a better deal opens up before you complete.
Around 1.8 million fixed rate mortgages are due to expire in 2026. A huge number of borrowers are going to be remortgaging this year, many of them coming off deals that were fixed at much lower rates during the pandemic era. Rising rates make that transition harder.
The smart move is to get ahead of it. Know your numbers, talk to a broker, and make a decision based on your own situation rather than hoping the market moves your way.
Rates can change fast. March 2026 has proved that again.
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