If you’ve glanced at the news today and wondered why oil prices are going absolutely mental, you’re not alone. As of this morning, Friday 6th March 2026, Brent crude has smashed through $90 a barrel for the first time in nearly two years, sitting at $83.99 to $92.70 depending on the contract, and WTI has topped $87 to $90.80. US crude has gained around 35% this week alone. Brent is up 28%. And the conflict driving all of this is still escalating by the hour.
What’s Actually Happening in Iran Right Now?
On 28th February 2026, the United States and Israel launched joint military strikes on Iran, targeting leadership and military infrastructure. The conflict is now in its seventh day and shows no signs of slowing down.
Iran retaliated immediately, firing waves of missiles and drones at Israel and targeting US allies across the region. Earlier this morning, President Trump escalated things further by posting publicly that there would be no deal with Iran except unconditional surrender. That single statement sent oil markets into another frenzy, with WTI jumping 12% to $90.80 a barrel and Brent surging 8.5% to $92.70 within hours.
This is not a minor regional skirmish. This is a full blown conflict involving two of the world’s most powerful military forces striking one of the most strategically critical nations on the planet, sitting right at the centre of global oil supply.
Why Does Iran Matter So Much for Oil Prices?
Here’s the bit that directly hits your wallet. Iran is one of the most significant players in global energy, producing around 3.5 million barrels of crude oil per day and holding the world’s third largest proven oil reserves.
But even bigger than Iran’s own production is its geographic position. Iran sits alongside the Strait of Hormuz, the single most important chokepoint in global oil trade. Around 20 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products flow through that strait every single day. Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the UAE together export more than 13 million barrels per day through it.
An IRGC commander has declared the strait closed, warning that any vessel attempting to pass will be targeted. Five tankers have already been damaged. Around 150 ships are stranded in the region. Zero oil tankers transited the strait on Wednesday according to S&P Global Commodities data, with traffic down at least 80% overall.
Think of it like this: if someone blocked the M25 completely during rush hour, the knock on effect would be felt across the entire country. The Strait of Hormuz is the M25 of the global oil market, except the consequences hit every country on earth simultaneously.
How Much Have Oil Prices Actually Jumped?
The numbers are staggering. Before the conflict began on 28th February, Brent crude was sitting at $72.86 a barrel and WTI was at $67.03. As of this morning, Friday 6th March 2026, Brent crude has hit $90 a barrel for the first time in nearly two years, with the spot price confirmed at $83.99 and futures surging as high as $92.70 on the back of Trump’s unconditional surrender post. WTI has topped $87 to $90.80 across the same timeframe.
In percentage terms, Brent is up 23% from last week and WTI has surged more than 30% in the same period. Futures overall are up more than a fifth this week. To put that into context, this is the biggest single week gain for oil since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
And it could go significantly higher from here. The US Development Finance Corporation announced this morning it is creating a $20 billion reinsurance facility in an attempt to get oil tankers moving through the strait again. But Qatar’s energy minister told the Financial Times today that crude prices could reach $150 a barrel in the coming weeks if tankers remain unable to pass through the strait, warning it could bring down the economies of the world. With WTI up 35% this week and Brent up 28%, that warning is not being dismissed lightly.
What About Natural Gas and Energy Bills?
It is not just oil. The Strait of Hormuz is also a critical route for liquefied natural gas, and the knock on effect on gas markets has been immediate and severe.
QatarEnergy, which operates the world’s largest LNG export facility, has halted activity after being targeted in an Iranian drone attack. Qatar alone accounts for around 20% of global LNG supply alongside the UAE. European gas markets have already surged more than 20% since the conflict began.
For UK households, this could not have come at a worse time. We have only just started recovering from the energy price crisis of the last few years. Another sustained spike in global gas prices feeds directly into UK energy bills and Ofgem’s price cap is already under pressure. If this conflict drags on, brace yourself.
What Does This Mean for UK Petrol Prices?
Bluntly, they are going up and going up fast.
The oil price feeds directly into what you pay at the pump, and when Brent crude spikes like this, UK forecourts follow within days. With Brent up 23% in a week, analysts are already warning that petrol prices will rise noticeably across the UK in the very near term, with some areas feeling the pinch sooner than others.
If you’ve got a commute, run a van, or just fill up regularly, budget for meaningfully higher costs over the coming weeks. This is not scaremongering. It is a direct and unavoidable consequence of what is happening in the strait right now.
Could This Trigger a Fresh Wave of Inflation in the UK?
This is the big question and the honest answer is yes, it absolutely could.
Higher oil and gas prices push up the cost of almost everything: manufacturing, transport, food production and heating. Iraq has already cut 1.5 million barrels per day of production, with analysts warning that global shut ins could reach nearly 5 million barrels per day if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted for several weeks.
If inflation ticks back up meaningfully, the Bank of England faces a serious dilemma. Rate cuts that many were hoping for in 2026 could be pushed back or cancelled entirely. That means mortgage costs staying elevated for longer. For anyone on a variable rate deal or coming off a fixed term soon, this is something to take seriously right now.
Can OPEC Ride to the Rescue?
You might have seen headlines about OPEC+ agreeing to increase production. Sounds like good news. More supply should bring prices down. But the reality is far more complicated.
OPEC+ agreed on a production increase at the weekend, even larger than expected. In a normal market, that would push prices lower. But right now, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut down, that extra production simply cannot reach global markets. More supply means nothing if it cannot be shipped.
Iraq, one of OPEC’s largest producers, may even have to stop production entirely if it cannot access the strait to export what it makes. The barrels exist. They just have nowhere to go.
What Should You Actually Do?
Here’s the practical bit, we are not here to just report the news. We are here to help you think about what it means for your money right now.
On inflation and interest rates, if this conflict continues and inflation ticks back up, rate cuts are off the table. If you are on a variable rate mortgage or coming off a fixed deal soon, factor this into your planning now rather than later.
On investments, oil company stocks tend to benefit from price spikes. If you hold energy sector funds in your ISA or pension, they may be performing strongly right now. Defence stocks have also surged since the conflict began. Broader market indices have dipped sharply on the uncertainty, so short term volatility is very much something to expect and plan around.
The bigger picture is this: energy security has been a talking point for years. This conflict is a sharp and brutal reminder of just how exposed the global economy still is to Middle East instability. Building your own financial resilience through an emergency fund, fixed rate savings and long term diversified investments is always the right move, but never more so than right now.
Content on IceburgWealth.com is for informational purposes only and not intended as investment advice. While we strive to provide accurate and up-to-date information, Iceburg Wealth is not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for outcomes resulting from the use of this information. Readers should seek professional advice before making any financial decisions.