China controls around 60% of the world’s rare earth mining and roughly 85% of global processing capacity, according to the US Geological Survey. Let that sink in for a second. That one fact is the reason Trump has spent two years going on about buying Greenland, the reason NATO is now involved in mineral rights talks, and the reason a small mining stock linked to Greenland’s deposits shot up nearly 150% in January 2026 according to Fortune. People laughed at Trump about this. They probably shouldn’t have.
What Are Rare Earths and Why Does Everyone Suddenly Want Them
Rare earth elements aren’t actually that rare in the ground. The problem is getting them out and processing them is an absolute nightmare, which is why most of the world gave up on it and let China get on with it. There are 17 of them and they’re in basically everything that runs modern life. Electric vehicles. Wind turbines. Smartphones. Fighter jets. MRI scanners. The magnets in your headphones. You get the idea.
Here’s the issue. China worked out decades ago that whoever controls the processing of these materials holds enormous power over everyone else. So they built the infrastructure, cornered the market, and now every Western government that wants to build EVs or wind farms or defence equipment has to go through Beijing to do it. That’s not a comfortable position to be in and it’s why governments are now throwing serious money at finding alternatives.
Where Does Greenland Come In
Greenland is sitting on between 36 and 42 million metric tons of rare earth oxides according to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. That’s potentially the second largest reserve on the planet after China. There are two massive deposits, Kvanefjeld in the south and Tanbreez in the east, both among the largest known deposits in the world.
For America and Europe this is a genuinely exciting find. A massive supply of critical minerals in a place that isn’t China and isn’t politically hostile. You can see why Trump kept banging on about it. The joke stopped being funny when people realised what was actually under the ice.
What’s Actually Happening Right Now
January 2026, Trump announced a framework deal with NATO that includes rights to Greenland’s rare earth minerals. The US Export-Import Bank sent a letter of interest for a $120 million loan to fund the Tanbreez mine, which according to CNBC would be the first overseas mining investment from the Trump administration. That’s real money moving, not just talk.
China isn’t watching from the sidelines either. Beijing already has a financial stake in the Kvanefjeld project through Shenghe Resources, which is the second biggest investor in the project’s owner, Australia’s Energy Transition Minerals. So you’ve basically got the US and China both trying to get their hands on minerals from the same frozen island. That’s not nothing.
But Here’s the Bit People Gloss Over
Mining in the Arctic costs five to ten times more than doing it anywhere else on the planet, according to CNN Business. Greenland’s deposits are lower grade than Chinese reserves. There are no processing facilities. According to experts quoted by Fortune it would take billions of dollars and at least a decade of work before you’d see any meaningful production come out of this.
This isn’t a six month trade. Anyone positioning themselves for a quick win here is going to get burned. But if you’ve got patience and a long time horizon, that’s a different conversation.
What It Actually Means If You Want to Invest
You’re not buying a Greenland mine. But there are ways to get exposure to this if you think the rare earth story plays out over the next ten to twenty years, which I do.
Critical minerals ETFs are probably the cleanest way in for most people. Something like the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF gives you a basket of companies across mining and processing rather than betting it all on one stock. If you want to put £500 or £1,000 into this as a speculative slice of a broader portfolio, that kind of fund is where I’d look first.
Individual mining stocks are higher risk but the upside can be significant. The companies linked to Greenland’s deposits proved that in January when stocks spiked nearly 150% on nothing more than Trump making noise. That volatility goes both ways though, and these stocks can drop just as fast.
EV and green energy companies are indirectly in the mix too. Tesla, Vestas Wind Systems, companies that actually need rare earths to build their products. A more stable Western supply chain is good for them. Disruption to it is bad. They’re not pure rare earth plays but the exposure is there.
Keep any allocation here small. This is a high conviction long term theme but it’s got real political and operational risk baked in. I wouldn’t be putting more than 5 to 10% of an investment portfolio anywhere near it.
FAQ
Is Greenland’s rare earth mining definitely going to happen?
Almost certainly at some point, yes. The incentive for Western governments to break China’s grip on this supply chain is too strong to ignore. But it’s years away from meaningful production and will cost an absolute fortune to develop. Don’t go in expecting quick returns.
How do I actually invest in rare earth minerals from the UK?
Easiest route is a critical minerals or battery metals ETF through a platform like Hargreaves Lansdown, AJ Bell, or Trading 212. You get exposure to a range of companies without putting everything on one stock. Individual mining stocks are available too but the risk is significantly higher.
Why has China ended up controlling rare earth processing?
They built the infrastructure over decades while everyone else ignored it. Even when rare earths get mined somewhere else in the world, the processing still largely happens in China because the facilities don’t exist anywhere else at scale. That’s exactly what the US and EU are now trying to change, slowly and expensively.
Whether Trump ends up buying Greenland or not, the minerals underneath it aren’t going anywhere. This is going to be a story for the next twenty years at least. The investors who understood it early enough will look back on this period as obvious in hindsight. Most people won’t even hear about it until it’s too late to matter.
Iceburg Wealth does not provide regulated financial advice. Everything here is based on personal experience and research. Always do your own due diligence before making any financial decisions.